Lake Mountain and Marysville Mountain Bike Operations
Turning a time-sensitive commercial opportunity into an informed investment decision
When an opportunity emerged to operate the Lake Mountain mountain bike trail network, Murrindindi Shire Council and Ride Marysville needed to assess whether the opportunity was commercially viable, strategically justified and worth pursuing.
The decision needed to be made quickly, but the implications extended well beyond responding to an Expression of Interest.
The 28.5 km Cascades Trail connects Lake Mountain with Marysville and forms an important part of the region’s mountain bike and visitor economy.
Shuttle ticket sales for the Cascades Trail had declined over three seasons, creating questions around demand, commercial viability, and the future potential of the trail.
At the same time, pursuing the opportunity would expose Council to new financial, governance and operational risks, making a clear understanding of the commercial viability and conditions for success critical before any commitment was made.
Blue Sky Trails was engaged to develop an independent business case to provide Council and Ride Marysville with the evidence required to make an informed investment decision.
The Challenge
The central question was not simply whether Council should respond to the Expression of Interest, but whether a sustainable mountain bike operation could be established, what conditions would be required for success, and what financial and organisational risks needed to be understood before proceeding.
This required the business case to look beyond historical revenue and visitation figures and understand what was actually driving performance.
The assessment also needed to consider the broader strategic value of the Cascades Trail to Marysville, which is largely a tourism-dependent community, and the trail’s potential role within the proposed future Marysville mountain bike network.
Our Approach
Blue Sky Trails brought together trail industry knowledge, operational data, and financial analysis to establish a clear picture of the opportunity and the risks.
A key component was detailed analysis of three seasons of shuttle booking data.
While overall ticket sales had declined, analysis of the underlying data identified an important distinction: the number of shuttle sessions being offered had also reduced, meaning that average seat utilisation remained relatively consistent.
This indicated that the reduction in ticket sales was influenced by reduced shuttle supply rather than a corresponding reduction in utilisation of the services that were available.
That distinction materially changed how the commercial opportunity could be assessed.
The business case then examined the relationship between service levels, potential revenue, operating costs, establishment requirements, risk and the broader economic role of the trail network.
From Data to Decision
The business case needed to do more than assess headline revenue and visitation trends. It needed to understand what was driving the data, test the factors that would determine commercial viability and clearly identify the risks and conditions Council needed to consider before making a decision.
The analysis moved from the initial indication of declining ticket sales, through the underlying service and utilisation data, to a broader assessment of demand, service levels, revenue, costs and risk. Together, these factors provided the evidence required to assess whether the opportunity was viable.
Rather than recommending a predetermined outcome, the business case gave Council and Ride Marysville a clear understanding of the commercial opportunity, financial realities, key risks and conditions required for success.
The assessment also identified the establishment costs required before operations could commence and considered potential funding pathways including grants, in-kind contributions and industry sponsorship.
The Outcome
The business case provided Council and Ride Marysville with a clear evidence base for considering the opportunity within a compressed decision-making timeframe.
Importantly, the analysis did not simply support or reject the proposal to respond to the Expression of Interest. The analysis identified the financial realities, risks and conditions for success to allow the organisations to make their own informed decision.
The work also placed the Cascades Trail within the broader strategic context of Marysville’s visitor economy and the proposed future mountain bike network, allowing the immediate commercial opportunity to be considered alongside longer-term regional objectives.
Why This Matters
Trail investment decisions are rarely based on a single measure such as visitation, revenue or construction cost.
Understanding whether an opportunity is viable requires those measures to be considered together and, importantly, understanding what is driving the underlying data.
For Lake Mountain and Marysville, deeper analysis of shuttle operations changed the interpretation of declining ticket sales and provided a stronger basis for assessing the opportunity.
The project demonstrates how a specialist trail business case can bring together market demand, operational realities, financial performance, risk and strategic value to support better investment decisions.
